NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1dab5dddb56da02c71719b50f6b3683951d86c06b748ca3d4caa65f6670d8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Under | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 72c | 1,996$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.32 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.43 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 72c | 1,035$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.99 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 50c | 999.99$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 589.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.75 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 535.7$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.13 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 499$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 42c | 270.16$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 106.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…359ebacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 72c | 89.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 55.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 50c | 44.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Over | 54c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…d2ebbacked Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 59c | 27.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.