NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d7b5c10c49dc0881dcec1b9be6468e91d9265e941fe07b8e79984833bc0789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Lightning, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Lightning | 30c | 1,980$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Lightning | 28c | 1,399$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.56 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 30c | 1,100$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Canadiens | 70c | 1,100$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Lightning | 30c | 889.85$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.64 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Canadiens | 74c | 831.26$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens | 73c | 708.46$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.73 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…c324backed Canadiens | 71c | 699.99$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Lightning | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Lightning | 22c | 600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Canadiens | 70c | 315.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Canadiens | 70c | 280$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 29c | 279.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Lightning | 23c | 270.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 70c | 260.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Lightning | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 18c | 242.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Canadiens | 78c | 242.34$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Canadiens | 70c | 232$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Canadiens | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Lightning | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Lightning | 29c | 186.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Canadiens | 69c | 185$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Canadiens | 70c | 161.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Canadiens | 72c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Canadiens | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…abbbbacked Canadiens | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fb…c5afbacked Lightning | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…c347backed Canadiens | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Lightning | 29c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Canadiens | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Lightning | 26c | 105.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lightning | 27c | 103.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Lightning | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…359ebacked Lightning | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canadiens | 77c | 91.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Canadiens | 71c | 83.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Canadiens | 67c | 74.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Canadiens | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Canadiens | 71c | 61.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Lightning | 30c | 61.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Lightning | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Canadiens | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…0738backed Lightning | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Lightning | 33c | 44.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Canadiens | 65c | 41.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Canadiens | 65c | 38.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Canadiens | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Canadiens | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Canadiens | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Canadiens | 69c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Canadiens | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked Canadiens | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Canadiens | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Canadiens | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Canadiens | 71c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Canadiens | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.