NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x624123d662516a63b3fae6d505250bbfc21979ca050187da40f4d09aa3868741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 51c | 83,768$42,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,444.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 49c | 45,000$22,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,949.99 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Under | 50c | 30,200$15,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,100 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +10.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 52c | 3,600$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 49c | 1,444$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 1,395$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.78 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 873.56$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.78 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 540$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 49c | 477.57$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.56 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 404.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 352.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 43c | 299.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 59c | 240.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…a64cbacked Under | 49c | 226.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Under | 64c | 203.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 51c | 170.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…77f8backed Under | 50c | 149.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 50c | 146.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 49c | 136.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 111.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…842bbacked Under | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299d…e85fbacked Over | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c6…f953backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4f…0ebebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 28c | 53.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 49c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…f684backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 75c | 37.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 34.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 49c | 33.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…0738backed Under | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…b9efbacked Over | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…55b8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanadiensLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.