Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1e3aac560fcb24a6901cc7fd8a2fb92b6f283bf5478947889c227090bb5f147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 277.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 42c | 166.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 150.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 141.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 129.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 126.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 33c | 122.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 108.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 103.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 96.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 92.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 66.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 62.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 57.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 51.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 44.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 59c | 44.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…b7bdbacked No | 59c | 42.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed Yes | 49c | 42.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 50c | 42.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 41.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 50c | 40.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 55c | 40.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…1ad4backed No | 55c | 40.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…91d9backed No | 56c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 39c | 35.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 73c | 35.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 36c | 35.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 34.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…4e61backed Yes | 43c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 30.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 55c | 30.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 30.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…d9e3backed Yes | 43c | 29.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed Yes | 47c | 28.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 58c | 21.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 61c | 19.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 65c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 61c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.