Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1eb52ce150f6d26683685640e0db20af5168d58ff8c973fc3cca0c2330f41e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 51c | 1,358$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.9 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 37c | 1,040$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.51 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 51c | 689.86$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 22c | 626.04$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 36c | 577.03$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.79 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 59c | 420.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…cd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 408.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f2d8backed Yes | 6c | 173$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 49.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked Yes | 44c | 47.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 43.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb84…a2dfbacked No | 48c | 41.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +216%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 33.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 50c | 31.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…06b3backed No | 45c | 25.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 65c | 22.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…ba00backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 13?this page
- Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 13?No won
- Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.