Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20bd32984045e32068e29461bc4dfc5f8bf6f91237798cc8a2b0735fca4a763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 819.3$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 394.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.02 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 29c | 357.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 24c | 129.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 122.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 22c | 118.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 113.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 110.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 99.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 96.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 88.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 83.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 78.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 75.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 68.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 66.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…a8b8backed No | 69c | 49.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 48.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 44.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 40.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 37.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 31c | 33.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 73c | 28.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 23.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 76c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed No | 73c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…bff5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.