TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,547
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,547 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c639.04$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.164,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes50c326.66$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c321.15$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes41c149$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.222,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes52c124.15$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.431,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No52c122.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.461,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes45c116$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c105$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c104.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.521,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes39c96.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.224,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No52c93.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7363757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No27c88.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.132,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No39c86.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.337150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c83.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes75c82.06$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes43c79.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.311,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No21c78.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.871159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes46c77.53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.731,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No61c75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.071,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No54c74.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No16c73.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.921,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No16c73.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7129717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No47c68.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.992,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes39c67.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7119648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No54c65.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No40c60.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1502…922ebacked Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304269%29 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes71c59.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No49c55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.773,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed No56c53.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes56c53.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.325831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45ee…983cbacked Yes70c51.9$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67152.1%37 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3034934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3525560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No35c47.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.761,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes44c47.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No35c46.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.151,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c45.37$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.292,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes62c44.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.233726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No55c41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3771464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes39c41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0120230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.428649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c39.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No43c37.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes48c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.341,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No54c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes58c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No57c31.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.976053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.643,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes60c28.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No52c28.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.566643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No61c27.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7113765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb17…ee85backed Yes47c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.317739%30 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed No62c26.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2411362.8%71 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes65c25.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0616934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8126344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c24.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.591,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73dd…1f06backed Yes49c24.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.629639.6%38 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0eb…9b18backed No61c24.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No50c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c23.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6265965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No57c21.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.042,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes49c20.24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2418235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ab…5cf7backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020852.4%109 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51c…325abacked No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes67c18.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No60c16.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.219362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.