AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb212f0d431d3926043e917a56dd4e0003b4f412e99b7c154ec0bdd9d90ffb009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 3c | 9,000$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 10c | 3,176$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.65 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 8c | 2,271$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.51 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 14c | 1,207$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 17c | 1,076$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 9c | 744.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 30c | 533.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked Yes | 70c | 486$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 13c | 461.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ed…8836backed No | 29c | 342.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 11c | 278.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…a5d1backed No | 17c | 209.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…4721backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 126.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 111.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 67c | 102.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 16c | 89.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 88.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 75.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…215fbacked Yes | 70c | 47.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?this page
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?No won
- Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.