World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb228c6bf1b0da43057e442c440b5f089ec22e6f1fee81d725d96912152a38207
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 404.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 367.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 11c | 251.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 251.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 12c | 236$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 13c | 213.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 8c | 170.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 17c | 148.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 141.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 15c | 130.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 127.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 16c | 123.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 118.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 18c | 111.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 9c | 107.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 13c | 100.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…fd80backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…98e0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 18c | 83.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 80c | 79.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 74.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 19c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 49.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…1e2bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.