World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f8b60a9887362f08f5178e87271ca85aa9b17a4a6d9133f2f9bbe4c46776fa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 30c | 817.04$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.75 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 602.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 430.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 392.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 345.17$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 4c | 341.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 315.76$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 271.09$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 263.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 23c | 257.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 19c | 225.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 206$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 24c | 194.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 181$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 164$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 25c | 147.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 145.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 123.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 120.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 31c | 120.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 67c | 113.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 27c | 110.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 107.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 34c | 100.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 97.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed No | 79c | 89.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 81.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 80.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 36c | 78.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 76.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 69c | 70.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…bd66backed Yes | 24c | 70.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 70.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…9baebacked Yes | 29c | 69.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 66.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 65.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 31c | 64.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 63.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4349backed Yes | 19c | 61.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 43c | 59.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 55.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 36c | 53.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 28c | 53.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 26c | 52.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 29c | 52.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 29c | 51.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 34c | 51.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…60f4backed No | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 50.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 49.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…849ebacked Yes | 36c | 48.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 33c | 48.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 74c | 48.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 34c | 44.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 41.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 41.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 40.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 37.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 61c | 32.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 31c | 32.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 64c | 29.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…24efbacked Yes | 46c | 29.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 49c | 27.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 65c | 25.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 65c | 23.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…daafbacked No | 72c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 21.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.