Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tarvisio: Matilde Paoletti vs Lucija Ciric Bagaric
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb289ecebba3fe6f6409a3ca6b9a1175409f560359e2e9623e7cb648f519b9189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucija Ciric Bagaricof Matilde Paoletti, Lucija Ciric Bagaric
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Matilde Paoletti | 55c | 6,300$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.08 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 49c | 2,279$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.29 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 51c | 1,767$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.53 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 53c | 1,057$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.67 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 51c | 957.33$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.09 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 36c | 839.14$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.8 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Matilde Paoletti | 55c | 677$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.59 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 31c | 631.71$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.25 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…9eaebacked Matilde Paoletti | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Matilde Paoletti | 21c | 599.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Matilde Paoletti | 76c | 589.42$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.82 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 49c | 285.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 44c | 270.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Matilde Paoletti | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 23c | 254.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.99 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 21c | 235$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 64c | 162$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 42c | 146.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 19c | 109.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 44c | 99.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…2cb8backed Matilde Paoletti | 60c | 80.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…01c6backed Matilde Paoletti | 65c | 76.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 23c | 74.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 18c | 74.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Matilde Paoletti | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 20c | 65.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…3053backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 65c | 58.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 217 | 65.9%143 W · 74 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Matilde Paoletti | 70c | 53.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 313 | 66.8%209 W · 104 L | +27.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Matilde Paoletti | 41c | 52.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Matilde Paoletti | 61c | 50.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 53c | 49.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Matilde Paoletti | 80c | 41.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Matilde Paoletti | 67c | 40.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 46c | 36.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Matilde Paoletti | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…d573backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 61c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Matilde Paoletti | 61c | 29.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 40c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Matilde Paoletti | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…529cbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 40c | 25.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 300 | 40%120 W · 180 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Matilde Paoletti | 43c | 25.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Matilde Paoletti | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 58c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…7807backed Lucija Ciric Bagaric | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.