Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb28f6fab3ac030090a2fd0ad9dcffdd0ade9fe92142aa030c85498b26fae5611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 37c | 4,543$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.29 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 3,074$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.92 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 2,314$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.55 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 60c | 1,670$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 1,412$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.91 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 66c | 937.27$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.37 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 21c | 825.38$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.27 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 32c | 749.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 35c | 410$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 400.5$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 393.67$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 80c | 335$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 42c | 214.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 60c | 208$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 60c | 208$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 60c | 191.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 39c | 139.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d7…68dfbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 72c | 92.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 87.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 18c | 82.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 58c | 41.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.