Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea98ebda84fbe7487283aa9eb6014063211d0d3799e2f49acbe38b1e4fd16ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 66c | 1,691$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 68c | 1,000$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 54c | 932.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.41 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 11c | 908.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 841.84$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.96 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 50c | 608.7$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.27 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 36c | 600$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 448.3$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 421.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 49c | 355.78$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.33 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 28c | 355$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 24c | 333.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 288.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Over | 30c | 222.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Under | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 44c | 166.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 53c | 157.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 52c | 101.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 75c | 100.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 63c | 95.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Under | 13c | 90.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 55c | 87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 15c | 83.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 26c | 77.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 26c | 76.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…67b9backed Over | 32c | 73.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 66.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 78c | 50.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 35.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 59c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 71c | 26.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 65c | 25.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…729cbacked Over | 48c | 25.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 41c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.