Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a4bd0d7c53c2c13bc37413e303161f7852d51aec8494d67ac97e150781ca7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 45c | 3,329$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 1,346$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.71 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.97 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 54c | 1,172$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.19 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…67b9backed Over | 1c | 1,097$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 929.23$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.7 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 758.57$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.88 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 572.98$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.16 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 513.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.62 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 53c | 391$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.77 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 309.7$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 57c | 301$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 39c | 256.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 39c | 222$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 206$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 198.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.44 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 34c | 178$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 162.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 36c | 116.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 46c | 106.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 38c | 98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 55c | 90.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 65c | 89.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 78.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 49c | 77.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 65.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 56c | 61.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 38c | 60.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 37c | 57.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…dac8backed Under | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 44c | 49.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 54c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 33c | 45.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 36c | 44.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Under | 61c | 43.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 37c | 35.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 52c | 34.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 62c | 30.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 49c | 20.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 61c | 17.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)CF Montréal won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.