Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb291e8cbc344886b73d2e61ae77d029ec05cc706c2fd5beb0687b1d65963eda6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 49c | 3,635$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.53 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 501.5$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 61c | 364.03$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.02 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 23c | 268.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 24c | 218.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.72 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 73c | 210.73$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 65c | 191.61$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 44c | 183.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 65c | 175.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 39c | 174.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 34c | 170.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 58c | 165.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 164.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 54c | 163.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 147.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 46c | 144.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 134.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 131.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed No | 79c | 129.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 77c | 126.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 40c | 126.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 121.25$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 19c | 117.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 104.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…96dcbacked Yes | 47c | 101.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 73c | 100.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 73c | 100.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 97.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 94.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 38c | 94.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 92.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 25c | 90.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 42c | 90.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 89.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 36c | 88.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 71c | 80.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 67c | 80.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 68.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 77c | 65.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 64.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 73c | 62.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 60.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 41c | 60.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 58.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 32c | 57.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 36c | 57.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 72c | 54.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 53.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 74c | 52.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 25c | 51.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 50.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 40c | 49.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 73c | 49.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 24c | 49.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 49c | 49.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…5271backed Yes | 37c | 46.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed No | 62c | 46.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 68c | 45.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 23c | 43.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 43.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 76c | 41.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…25bfbacked Yes | 40c | 39.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 30c | 39.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…a201backed No | 49c | 37.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…4681backed Yes | 38c | 37.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 43c | 32.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe770…6c69backed Yes | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 29.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 47c | 28.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 37c | 28.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 57c | 25.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 65c | 25.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 44c | 24.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 44c | 23.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 54c | 19.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.4wins | -0.57per pick | 74cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.