Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6eeb8d002aa6304a70ca8756a6e5d5e2ba390c894261c0ffafe2687109ebabc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 693.34$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.02 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 449.01$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 12c | 434.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 419.56$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 49c | 387.43$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 33c | 363.38$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.61 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 314.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 75c | 285.59$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 49c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 39c | 195.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 30c | 194.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 59c | 191.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 51c | 185.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 55c | 178.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed No | 59c | 163.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 160.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 46c | 159.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 154.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 151.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 44c | 146.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 132.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 43c | 132.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 54c | 124.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 119.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 119.18$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 40c | 113.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 108.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 32c | 105.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 96.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed No | 36c | 96.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 89.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 49c | 87.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 50c | 79.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 54c | 79.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 34c | 76.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…05c7backed No | 62c | 75.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 57c | 74.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 54c | 74.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 26c | 71.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 41c | 67.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 60c | 63.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 39c | 60.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 57.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 56.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 53.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 43c | 52.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 49c | 51.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 34c | 51.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 56c | 51.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…7972backed Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 39c | 50.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 54c | 50.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 57c | 50.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 61c | 49.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 65c | 45.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked Yes | 36c | 42.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 47c | 40.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…6e6dbacked No | 49c | 38.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 38.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 44c | 37.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 30c | 35.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…dfaebacked No | 69c | 35.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…0551backed Yes | 55c | 34.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 56c | 32.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 50c | 31.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 31.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 40c | 30.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…a622backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 52c | 29.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 52c | 27.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…9f9ebacked No | 49c | 26.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 58c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 56c | 25.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 62c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 63c | 24.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 48c | 24.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 23.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 23.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 53c | 22.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 51c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…4a8bbacked Yes | 56c | 20.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 20.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.