TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,467 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9970…1651backed Yes1c3,542$35 inLost-$35.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No74c869.99$641 inWon+$229.265762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafcf…d7abbacked Yes29c697.5$201 inLost-$201.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes28c592.28$165 inLost-$1653925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No70c428.38$301 inWon+$127.841,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8744…9165backed Yes26c404.57$105 inLost-$104.962045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No73c376$273 inWon+$103.427059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No70c361.52$253 inWon+$108.4626069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c34…7f3ebacked Yes31c210.65$65 inLost-$6570%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7268…b69fbacked Yes29c199.97$58 inLost-$57.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No73c159.54$116 inWon+$43.384,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb1…e0cbbacked Yes24c146.42$35 inLost-$34.571216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No71c27.03$19 inWon+$7.9392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No72c18.86$14 inWon+$5.3483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.