NBA · resolved market

Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af98338a1938de2627be0fb6423c2d445a95f6d076af590dc74765e820352b5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Pacers
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $18,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pacers	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies	48c	2,048$983 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,065.24	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Grizzlies	48c	1,604$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$834.08	513	54.2%278 W · 235 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers	53c	1,196$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Grizzlies	46c	1,090$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$588.6	208	46.6%97 W · 111 L	-9.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Pacers	54c	931.91$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.23	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers	41c	898.7$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.97	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Grizzlies	47c	744.68$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.68	348	54%188 W · 160 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Pacers	54c	740.74$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	144	50.7%73 W · 71 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e58…dba7backed Pacers	51c	695.7$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.11	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies	46c	652.17$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.17	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Grizzlies	48c	641.09$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.22	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers	52c	599.39$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.31	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Grizzlies	45c	559.28$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.61	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Grizzlies	46c	557.15$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.38	285	37.9%108 W · 177 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Pacers	54c	442.6$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239	241	51%123 W · 118 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies	48c	416.05$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.35	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Grizzlies	74c	400$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Grizzlies	48c	366.01$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.64	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Pacers	55c	259.82$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.9	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies	70c	238.08$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.42	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies	47c	223.84$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.14	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pacers	51c	217.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.8	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Grizzlies	46c	214.95$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.05	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Grizzlies	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	110	51.8%57 W · 53 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Grizzlies	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers	54c	179.42$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.73	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Grizzlies	46c	173.91$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.91	238	47.1%112 W · 126 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb557…7f28backed Grizzlies	46c	153.18$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.72	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Grizzlies	49c	147.36$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.15	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers	54c	138.14$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.58	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Grizzlies	46c	130.43$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.43	87	54%47 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Pacers	55c	130$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.45	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Pacers	53c	113.22$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.01	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Grizzlies	56c	107.27$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.27	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked Grizzlies	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Grizzlies	48c	100.08$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.14	110	45.5%50 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pacers	39c	88.26$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.15	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Pacers	32c	87.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	656	30.2%198 W · 458 L	-86.7wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Grizzlies	46c	87.26$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.12	195	43.1%84 W · 111 L	-12.2wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Pacers	43c	86.45$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.95	877	44.7%392 W · 485 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Pacers	13c	83.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	123	31.7%39 W · 84 L	-17.0wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers	51c	81.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.33	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed Pacers	32c	79.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	84	60.7%51 W · 33 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Pacers	54c	74.16$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	442	43.7%193 W · 249 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Pacers	55c	65.13$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Pacers	55c	64.95$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.72	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Grizzlies	47c	63.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Pacers	53c	63.62$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.72	218	54.6%119 W · 99 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Grizzlies	47c	62.6$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.18	144	48.6%70 W · 74 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Grizzlies	50c	62$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe350…61f0backed Grizzlies	46c	55.72$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.09	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Grizzlies	46c	54.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Pacers	54c	50.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0891…32aebacked Pacers	54c	46.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Pacers	52c	41.5$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1e…e503backed Pacers	54c	40.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.2wins	-0.22per pick	48cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x37d6…4c63backed Pacers	54c	38.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.3wins	-0.30per pick	48cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Pacers	33c	38.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	194	35.1%68 W · 126 L	-13.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies	51c	38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.62	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba08…21f1backed Pacers	54c	37.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Grizzlies	49c	37$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.87	655	42.9%281 W · 374 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…1618backed Pacers	54c	36.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.73	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+3.6wins	+0.16per pick	47cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Grizzlies	63c	35.26$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.03	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	47c	34.13$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.14	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Grizzlies	46c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	969	56.3%546 W · 423 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Grizzlies	47c	29.79$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.79	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Grizzlies	46c	29.63$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Grizzlies	53c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.7	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Pacers	53c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	620	49%304 W · 316 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies	46c	27.48$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.83	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Grizzlies	58c	24.2$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.05	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Grizzlies	61c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.31	308	40.9%126 W · 182 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea05…6e25backed Pacers	54c	23.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Grizzlies	66c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.74	619	39.6%245 W · 374 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Grizzlies	66c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.83	385	40.3%155 W · 230 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)this page
Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 18.5No won
Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
Ben Sheppard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Grizzlies vs. PacersGrizzlies won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 242.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 248.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Under won
Jay Huff: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Grizzlies won
Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Grizzlies won
T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Walter Clayton Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
Walter Clayton Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event