NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366d4c66f95fe03f7c045528b2cd894cdb31940be1a105f60022f3a397c9ee38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Under | 54c | 1,963$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.55 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 861.09$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 51c | 669.77$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.15 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 46c | 549$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.54 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 55c | 546.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.67 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 530.87$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 419.08$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Under | 53c | 375.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.28 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…5826backed Under | 54c | 311.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 548 | 53.8%295 W · 253 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 276.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 46c | 231.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 226.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 214.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 39c | 141.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 46c | 138.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 134.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…635bbacked Over | 47c | 129.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Over | 63c | 127.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 103.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 78.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 66.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 48c | 61.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 56.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 56c | 48.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 257 | 52.5%135 W · 122 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 49c | 43.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 51c | 36.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…0af4backed Over | 49c | 35.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 49c | 33.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 53c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 201 | 40.3%81 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Ben Sheppard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. PacersGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 242.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 248.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 251.5Under won
- Jay Huff: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Walter Clayton Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.