Fifa International · resolved market
Brazil vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a19bbfd6376ea3c2dd06fa61cb465dff322fbd1314cc8e165ffb3d047e15bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 15c | 1,137$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.83 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 33c | 1,039$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.95 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Under | 67c | 524.01$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.47 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 74c | 389.5$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.23 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 14c | 337.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.17 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 9c | 333.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.75 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 275.09$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.25 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 33c | 187.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 143.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 133.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 111.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 68c | 111.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 68c | 111.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 68c | 100.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 68c | 92.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 68c | 86.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 68c | 82.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 35c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…53f1backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 33c | 69.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 33c | 66.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 60.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 28c | 57.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 51.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…5d9abacked Over | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 68c | 39.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…388ebacked Under | 68c | 39.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 33c | 31.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 64.7%99 W · 54 L | +13.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 67c | 19.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 67c | 18.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 67c | 14.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brazil vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5this page
- Brazil vs. Croatia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brazil vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Brazil vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brazil (-1.5)Brazil won
- Spread: Brazil (-2.5)Croatia won
- Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Brazil won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.