Us Politics · resolved market
Trump executive order ending Department of Education in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d1e1743fddb7db1aa57f68d8b4c40cd51a8e619b271f7d8b3f3603bed5ec6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 12,309$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 1,544$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 21c | 717.46$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 7c | 680.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…fb1cbacked No | 12c | 679.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 74c | 468.99$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked No | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 4c | 447.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 7c | 410$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…360bbacked No | 27c | 403.38$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 4c | 345.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…ba5bbacked No | 51c | 292.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 11c | 273.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 5c | 271.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 4c | 233.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…1fbfbacked No | 5c | 202.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed No | 11c | 201.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -81%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 14c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 15c | 149.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed No | 18c | 142.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…fe5abacked No | 7c | 136.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb7…efebbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 19c | 88.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed No | 19c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…4279backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…24bdbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 72c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.