Champions League · resolved market
Will Sabah FK vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2eb1125f4ac6e087a0956e0b1abb95f88378f48e992157ec52078f1f7a08f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 27c | 7,500$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.99 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 71c | 4,427$3,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.89 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 3,133$2,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.33 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 144 | 31.9%46 W · 98 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,420$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.11 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 72c | 1,375$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.04 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 1,314$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.86 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 26c | 999.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 906.3$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.57 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed Yes | 26c | 622.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7062…9f54backed No | 74c | 489.87$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 26c | 439.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 310 | 47.4%147 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 429.64$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 329 | 44.7%147 W · 182 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed No | 75c | 355$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 26c | 226.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 75c | 225$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 67c | 207.45$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 450 | 42%189 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 197.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 33c | 179.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 285 | 40%114 W · 171 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 27c | 114.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 74c | 91.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 73c | 79.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…1f7bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…0f17backed Yes | 27c | 73.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 79c | 44.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 614 | 47.2%290 W · 324 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 31.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed No | 74c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed No | 74c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 74c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 74c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 74c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 73c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 875 | 31.1%272 W · 603 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 74c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sabah FK vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?this page
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-11?No won
- Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.