Champions League · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b335302e1088aa229df04c89c2494067dd15091683431d61e2ab27424d9d7fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 5,801$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.82 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 3,200$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.7 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 75c | 2,621$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.06 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 21c | 2,618$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.72 | 498 | 40.4%201 W · 297 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,360$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.35 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 77c | 2,290$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.7 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 1,384$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.86 | 344 | 45.1%155 W · 189 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 79c | 1,036$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.65 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 705.16$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.29 | 328 | 47.9%157 W · 171 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 79c | 581.77$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.83 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 47cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 26c | 387.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 18c | 336.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed No | 75c | 289$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 20c | 271.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 315 | 56.5%178 W · 137 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 201.78$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 21c | 195.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 20c | 185.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 20c | 168.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 30c | 158.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 288 | 33.3%96 W · 192 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 25c | 155.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 19c | 124$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 247 | 52.2%129 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc97…7172backed Yes | 23c | 113.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed No | 80c | 106.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…d8a6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Yes | 23c | 97.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 76c | 89.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 79c | 75.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 25c | 64.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…602fbacked No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 21c | 50.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 449 | 33.6%151 W · 298 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 45.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 32.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 316 | 56.6%179 W · 137 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 80c | 27.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 75c | 23.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 80c | 18.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 79c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 75c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-08-11?this page
- Will Sabah FK vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw?No won
- Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.