Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2fa7b0c48e3e0bd53d4fdd1df2e4df29ab31e27333c0c01ac6d3dae3f7f8097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 13c | 617.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 30c | 540.07$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 435.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 68c | 431.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 76c | 395.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 348.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 34c | 304.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 273.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 243.93$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 227.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 223$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 22c | 218.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 30c | 202.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 200.78$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 178.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 34c | 150.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 148$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 143.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 80c | 137.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 113.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 64c | 112.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 107$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 97.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 87.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 78.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 32c | 73.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 70.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 19c | 65.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8be…487abacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 60.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 74c | 56.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 50.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 31c | 48.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 77c | 45.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 69c | 43.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 40.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 29c | 37.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 36.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…118dbacked No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 25.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 70c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 69c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 18.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.