Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764ec55d3281502e7ff0bd5a4aad834c9762bd78e6718fab488fa4bd84d19d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 1,840$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 635.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 538.92$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 510$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 435.92$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.72 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 57c | 393.07$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.91 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked No | 61c | 389.01$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.63 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 385.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 291$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 246.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 240.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 238.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 224$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 211.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 53c | 182.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 175.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 171.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 163.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 159.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 58c | 146.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 138.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 135$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 54c | 126.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 48c | 124.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 39c | 110.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 45c | 109.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…ec3abacked Yes | 40c | 103.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 102.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 100.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 95.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 95.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 94.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 90.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 76.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 35c | 74.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…ff6cbacked Yes | 69c | 71.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 69.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 72c | 68.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 65.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 63.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 45c | 61.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 32c | 56.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 73c | 55.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 24c | 51.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 26c | 49.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 49.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 53c | 46.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 47c | 38.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 48c | 32.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 54c | 31.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 42c | 24.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 62c | 24.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed Yes | 69c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…f9f7backed Yes | 76c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…9215backed Yes | 57c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.