MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb30d206808445890776818e6b2e410c619971ae64ed65fa7652825f1960b7b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Over | 34c | 2,946$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.59 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,774$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Under | 60c | 1,386$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 902.7$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Under | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 298$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…1377backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 41c | 209.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 208.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Under | 59c | 167.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 18c | 136.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 132.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 45c | 128.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Over | 35c | 97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 72c | 82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 75.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 64.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…dcfcbacked Under | 28c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed Under | 35c | 46.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 25c | 41.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 60c | 40.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 44c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 52c | 20.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.