MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d25c6655258d45575a0eae4fee9c42e17cf1f1337635f4c9a645ee3dc14482d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 52c | 60,428$31,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,397.05 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 22,317$10,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,604.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 15,667$7,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,146.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,804.03 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 7,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,640 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 6,242$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 3,900$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 2,208$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.06 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 1,002$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 808$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 603$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.53 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 585$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 469$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 314$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 307.44$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 50c | 258.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 238.13$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 51c | 208.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 208.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 205$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 201.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 199$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 50c | 195.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 49c | 192.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…4a26backed Under | 48c | 147.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 140.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…b953backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 54c | 99.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 25c | 99.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Under | 51c | 67.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 51c | 67.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 62.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 72c | 60.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 29c | 58.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Under | 50c | 57.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 51c | 53.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…66f7backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 65c | 46.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 43.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 46c | 39.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 32.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 52c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 29.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 64c | 25.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 20.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.