CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb327bd8b1bdece0e5e1fc4e53b7500d71f0ecb639452555a5a4840cdfd42fdbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof Liquid, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked fnatic | 63c | 10,660$6,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,740.55 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Liquid | 37c | 4,260$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.88 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Liquid | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed fnatic | 63c | 2,500$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.76 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Liquid | 38c | 1,847$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.66 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Liquid | 35c | 1,217$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.14 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed fnatic | 65c | 1,172$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.72 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed fnatic | 62c | 1,104$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.99 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Liquid | 35c | 1,046$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.56 | 328 | 44.8%147 W · 181 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Liquid | 36c | 1,033$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.46 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Liquid | 36c | 998.26$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.74 | 341 | 40.8%139 W · 202 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Liquid | 37c | 980.04$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.43 | 471 | 47.3%223 W · 248 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Liquid | 38c | 819.98$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.19 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Liquid | 40c | 798$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.72 | 767 | 48%368 W · 399 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed fnatic | 64c | 619.11$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.01 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…f538backed Liquid | 38c | 392.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Liquid | 37c | 389.91$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.47 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79b…b9eebacked Liquid | 35c | 386.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…5a83backed Liquid | 35c | 370.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.69 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…864bbacked Liquid | 35c | 316$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…694fbacked Liquid | 36c | 313.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…c307backed Liquid | 35c | 208.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Liquid | 35c | 199.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Liquid | 37c | 185$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Liquid | 35c | 168.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.37 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…4a99backed Liquid | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 297 | 31%92 W · 205 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Liquid | 36c | 138$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | -13.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Liquid | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed fnatic | 62c | 132$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Liquid | 38c | 129.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Liquid | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Liquid | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked fnatic | 44c | 114.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Liquid | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed fnatic | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Liquid | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed fnatic | 62c | 94.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Liquid | 36c | 93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Liquid | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked fnatic | 60c | 75.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Liquid | 37c | 64.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8382backed fnatic | 64c | 60.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Liquid | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 297 | 52.2%155 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed fnatic | 64c | 50.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…5addbacked fnatic | 63c | 50.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +11.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Liquid | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 220 | 60.9%134 W · 86 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Liquid | 37c | 48.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +11.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Liquid | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed fnatic | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 239 | 63.2%151 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b4…6815backed fnatic | 64c | 43.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed fnatic | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…cdcbbacked fnatic | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Liquid | 36c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed fnatic | 39c | 31.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 287 | 61.3%176 W · 111 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Liquid | 38c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Liquid | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed fnatic | 66c | 21.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I PlayoffsLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs fnatic - Map 1 WinnerLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs fnatic - Map 2 WinnerLiquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.