MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32e264f4cdb48b48f4956df7e6c3716e964de9b6ab6504fbed7b525f908ac25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 11,126$5,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,643.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 10,134$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,150 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 5,216$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 3,777$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 51c | 2,476$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 51c | 1,933$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.26 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 51c | 962.16$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.7 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 51c | 961.73$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.48 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 961.53$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.38 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 42c | 712.07$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 51c | 577.12$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 51c | 254.61$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 51c | 248.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 50c | 205.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 50c | 139.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 53c | 134.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 117$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 51c | 101.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 50c | 101.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Over | 51c | 100.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 98.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 50c | 93.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 42c | 87.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 50c | 80.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 51c | 80.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 50c | 76.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 50c | 69.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 50c | 51.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 50c | 42.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 29.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 50c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…f6b5backed Over | 48c | 27.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 50c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Over | 50c | 22.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1a…120dbacked Over | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.