MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26aea9ab2e0679d0708160fbe8aa72d5cb7a3cdca5f1f63f4ceb05df5ec07dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.99 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Under | 51c | 1,647$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.22 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 49c | 1,226$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,202$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 1,057$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…b1debacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Over | 50c | 819.14$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.57 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 51c | 686.27$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.27 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 587.69$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 51c | 574$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.26 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 49c | 543$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.07 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 316.58$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 299$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 35c | 298.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 278.45$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 51c | 242.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 15c | 237$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 18c | 218$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 193.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 46c | 188.06$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 49c | 179.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 175.91$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 65c | 144.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 118$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 103.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over | 48c | 92.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 46c | 65.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 46c | 54.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 51c | 45.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 42.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 60c | 34.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Over | 54c | 33.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Over | 55c | 27.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.