TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,455 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins35c516.07$183 inLost-$182.611,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4263…81f8backed Kansas City Royals78c384.68$300 inWon+$84.682166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Minnesota Twins23c145.5$34 inLost-$33.5653238.5%205 W · 327 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abf…e301backed Kansas City Royals78c128.2$100 inWon+$28.21668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe660…514fbacked Minnesota Twins34c87.1$30 inLost-$305050%25 W · 25 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals19c84.74$16 inWon+$68.642,04439.5%808 W · 1,236 L-24.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Kansas City Royals21c81.97$17 inWon+$64.871,82854.1%989 W · 839 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins18c78.25$14 inLost-$14.1310,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Kansas City Royals37c70.55$26 inWon+$44.5145952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Minnesota Twins79c60.11$48 inLost-$47.627447.8%131 W · 143 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Kansas City Royals68c55.15$37 inWon+$17.651,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Minnesota Twins39c31.04$12 inLost-$12.1533352.3%174 W · 159 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals59c29.86$18 inWon+$12.2411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Kansas City Royals72c24.89$18 inWon+$6.9722949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins67c15$10 inLost-$10.051,48163.5%940 W · 541 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.