MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd33764afdcf9d7fabc8e17cda7c55cf5707cec8a56cb02b267ed2a24a008ba9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 55c | 27,570$15,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,104.84 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 13,767$6,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,536.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 10,585$4,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,796.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 2,700$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 2,590$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,758$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,303$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 1,039$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.42 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 913$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.02 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 54c | 890.69$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.03 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 872.57$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 458$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Under | 71c | 418.31$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 30c | 415.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.71 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 374.16$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 370.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 37c | 312.71$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 296.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 46c | 276$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 57c | 258.05$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 50c | 205.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 189.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 46c | 175.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 43c | 132.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…0af7backed Under | 55c | 132.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 63c | 120.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a20dbacked Under | 54c | 118.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 44c | 101.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 43c | 99.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 91.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 90.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 43c | 88.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 46c | 80.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed Under | 55c | 54.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…d8b4backed Under | 56c | 48.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 53c | 40.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 43c | 33.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 47c | 24.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 46c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 61c | 16.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.