MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c7e9c0327d5bf4339a40bb892a79450cd0a1c886418f6f2263fe0c6322c65b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 52c | 38,589$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 48c | 30,825$14,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,028.76 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 50c | 7,171$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,590.35 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 52c | 7,100$3,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,689.44 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 49c | 7,000$3,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,605 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 51c | 6,450$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.33 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,258$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.16 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,706$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 66c | 1,339$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 46c | 1,300$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed No | 4c | 937.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 48c | 525.14$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.07 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 50c | 426$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…81f8backed No | 49c | 397.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed No | 51c | 235.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 218$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 193.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed No | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked No | 48c | 133.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 48c | 92.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 51c | 91.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 52c | 88.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Yes | 49c | 86.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…1a0dbacked No | 49c | 83.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 49c | 61.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 50c | 59.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed No | 48c | 46.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed No | 49c | 39.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…0cd6backed Yes | 49c | 34.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 50c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24a…1268backed No | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed No | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed Yes | 52c | 22.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Yes | 49c | 20.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royalsthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.