Tennis · resolved market
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3412f200989a6e8531a780aef54a308f59a22e0e0f272de4ac2819ee9c8dc3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 1,188$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 1,141$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.19 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 773.11$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 323.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 273.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 224.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…71acbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 214.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 209.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…75e4backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 204.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 171.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 158.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 102.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…e44ebacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 99.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 97.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 69.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Over 2.5 | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 59.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292c…7756backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 53.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 52.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 47.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 33.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja ChwalinskaMaja Chwalinska won
- Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs ChwalinskaChwalinska won
- Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5)Chwalinska won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.