Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5a4530ffd3f131a93a2fe55229404982dff8af71740fb0ad457c5e41cc6f109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chwalinskaof Kalinskaya, Chwalinska
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Chwalinska | 68c | 4,155$2,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.36 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Kalinskaya | 33c | 2,517$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.34 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kalinskaya | 31c | 1,522$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.27 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Chwalinska | 65c | 1,468$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.69 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…c850backed Chwalinska | 70c | 1,369$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.59 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kalinskaya | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Chwalinska | 64c | 893.84$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.41 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kalinskaya | 32c | 763.35$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Kalinskaya | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b7…1454backed Kalinskaya | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kalinskaya | 33c | 354.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Kalinskaya | 35c | 280$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Kalinskaya | 32c | 251.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kalinskaya | 31c | 206$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Kalinskaya | 32c | 153.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kalinskaya | 32c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15dd…11dbbacked Chwalinska | 64c | 147.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Kalinskaya | 36c | 133.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Kalinskaya | 36c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Kalinskaya | 31c | 103.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Kalinskaya | 31c | 102.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Kalinskaya | 33c | 80.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Chwalinska | 67c | 80.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Kalinskaya | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Kalinskaya | 36c | 69.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…c98cbacked Chwalinska | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Kalinskaya | 57c | 52.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Kalinskaya | 32c | 45.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Kalinskaya | 33c | 42.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…3ab2backed Chwalinska | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932e…6f5abacked Chwalinska | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Chwalinska | 51c | 30.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Chwalinska | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Chwalinska | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Chwalinska | 67c | 26.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55d…6984backed Kalinskaya | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Chwalinska | 66c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5)this page
- Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja ChwalinskaMaja Chwalinska won
- Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs ChwalinskaChwalinska won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.