Tennis · resolved market
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc98f741580bbed5a22234a5e2f37dffd14907fae1d5d2fc3bb4861b0df803e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 71c | 1,418$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.82 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 29c | 825.93$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.52 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 29c | 431$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 31c | 383.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…f0d8backed Over | 71c | 211.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Under | 33c | 164.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 30c | 75.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Over | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…7ab4backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e77…303fbacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 158 | 56.3%89 W · 69 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 67c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…ac11backed Over | 69c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja ChwalinskaMaja Chwalinska won
- Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs ChwalinskaChwalinska won
- Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5)Chwalinska won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.