Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3807f67621738138ff77fafba95ee994053daf8d9f8a5b3f3000c8826489b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 53c | 471.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 466.35$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 386.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 354.55$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.91 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 41c | 338.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 40c | 283.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 14c | 224.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 193.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 183.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 161$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 160.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 158.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 71c | 141.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 64c | 140.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 43c | 129.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 58c | 129.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 9c | 120.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 119$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 109.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 72c | 106.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 105.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 45c | 96.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 91.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 17c | 90.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 80.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 71.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 62c | 63.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 62.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 54.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 54.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 50.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 50.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 49.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 52c | 47.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 52c | 44.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 46c | 43.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 42.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 57c | 41.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 49c | 35.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 34.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed No | 58c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 50c | 27.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 40c | 25.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 56c | 24.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 23.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 23.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 48c | 23.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 60c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 59c | 18.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…afb3backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.