Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8336f16d3c04f2d0f4532074d18a38509c964a0b75a3153fd9afaff37e6da57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 40c | 712.77$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.56 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 61c | 697.52$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.22 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 637.97$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 485.89$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 29c | 466.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 435.3$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 403.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 355.55$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 39c | 306.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.28 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 283.83$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 76c | 256.16$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 238.84$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 33c | 229.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 67c | 223.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 46c | 216.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 171.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 170.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 159.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 159.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 153.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 73c | 153$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 48c | 131.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 128$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 126.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 122.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 121$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 116.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 115.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 111.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 100.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 88.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 86.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 85.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 82.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 50c | 79.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 39c | 76.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…deb5backed Yes | 39c | 76.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 74.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 69.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 59c | 68.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 67c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 67.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 39c | 67.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 63c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 50.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 45.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 44.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 43.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3bdbbacked No | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 41.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…f457backed Yes | 46c | 41.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 39.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 43c | 39.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 42c | 37.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 40c | 33.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 33.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 32.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 67c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 39c | 29.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 36c | 29.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 65c | 26.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 67c | 23.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 55c | 19.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed No | 67c | 18.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.