MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb38d0ef8ca87e5134afdc63bf3d0a6757d99580bc20237f23378618bd0a9f6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 52c | 39,385$20,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,478.13 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 16,845$8,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,689.12 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 6,797$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.32 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 48c | 4,813$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.9 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 49c | 2,222$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.78 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 1,221$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.7 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 1,221$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.7 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 50c | 1,221$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.7 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.98 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 6c | 1,028$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 819.6$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.19 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 48c | 691.78$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.73 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 650.09$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.21 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 52c | 529.12$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 2c | 515.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 50c | 383$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Under | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Under | 48c | 376.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.74 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 51c | 297.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 296.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.35 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 48c | 278.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.7 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 49c | 214.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 207.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Under | 50c | 197.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 190.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 48c | 144.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 49c | 133.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 51c | 111.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 110.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 44c | 75.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Under | 49c | 61.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 47c | 49.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 53c | 45.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 42.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 63c | 42.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 51c | 42.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 51c | 38.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 54c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 50c | 35.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 35.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 51c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 26.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 48c | 25.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 50c | 24.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 52c | 24.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Under | 49c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Under | 48c | 23.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 51c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…6c9bbacked Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Over | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 55c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.