MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb39949fa8b834c69673ab329af3189696800d238576cbc15691dc60f31b4bece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 96,101$54,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,848.43 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 72,118$30,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,030.74 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 15,153$7,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,999.91 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 3,741$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.83 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 56c | 1,688$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.81 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 1,416$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 43c | 1,053$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.07 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 1,039$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 599.95$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.98 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 65c | 581$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.86 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 44c | 446.42$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.42 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 57c | 438$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.34 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 433.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 43c | 418.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 464 | 45.7%212 W · 252 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 78c | 182.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 58c | 171.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over | 57c | 149.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 238 | 55.5%132 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 69c | 78.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 69c | 75.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 69c | 73.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 57c | 63.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,221 | 50%610 W · 611 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 44c | 48.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 74c | 43.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 27c | 43.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Over | 48c | 38.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 43c | 38.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 67c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 69c | 31.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…638bbacked Over | 76c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 902 | 48.4%437 W · 465 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. AthleticsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.