MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacd916d9f0201037827613f79bd4bb2f752a74a35e7f1b09ea1b164cab4f01d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 33,714$15,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,691.58 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 16,043$7,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,178.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 9,980$5,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,201.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 3,858$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 3,306$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.09 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 3,196$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 61c | 1,530$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.3 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 78c | 869.06$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 731.41$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 599.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 40c | 509.06$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 463.23$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…92e9backed Over | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Under | 60c | 338.44$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 300.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 39c | 228$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 60c | 203$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 46c | 130.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 60c | 103.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 49c | 98.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 73.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…772abacked Under | 68c | 65.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 70c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ae…b9d9backed Under | 58c | 25.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 48c | 23.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. AthleticsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.