MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3a11a33d4b1f23cdc587ba06ef1ceaddd54cb234c422905dcd78391a9ce065e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 2,382$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.72 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 1,905$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.74 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 853.35$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.65 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 820.63$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 767.14$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 748.4$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 503.88$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 446.61$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 395.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 379.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 288.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b1…315abacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 281.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 171.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Boston Red Sox | 67c | 161.06$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Detroit Tigers | 32c | 155.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 141.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 130.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…076fbacked Detroit Tigers | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 120.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 96.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 92.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 90.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 89.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 78.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 62.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 55.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 33c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 50.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 50.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 48.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Detroit Tigers | 33c | 44.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d010backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 44.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boston Red Sox | 71c | 39.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Detroit Tigers | 34c | 38.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 36.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Boston Red Sox | 73c | 31.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 22.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.