Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3b28635307e2d83c70ba28287bde43a7a09185e84a2213ab99d38f1b0df8883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crest Gaming Zstof Crest Gaming Zst, Insomnia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 5,758$3,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.24 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 70c | 4,527$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.76 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Insomnia | 31c | 1,917$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Insomnia | 30c | 1,738$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.45 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Insomnia | 32c | 1,600$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.97 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Insomnia | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Insomnia | 32c | 1,394$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.36 | 136 | 42.6%58 W · 78 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…e454backed Crest Gaming Zst | 69c | 1,103$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.15 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Insomnia | 31c | 1,076$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.46 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Insomnia | 32c | 1,024$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.3 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Insomnia | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Insomnia | 32c | 899.25$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.76 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Insomnia | 30c | 840.11$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.12 | 234 | 47%110 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…2013backed Insomnia | 30c | 793.28$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.53 | 191 | 34.6%66 W · 125 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Insomnia | 30c | 568.24$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 476.38$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…c9b1backed Insomnia | 13c | 355.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 347.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Insomnia | 31c | 295.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 218.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…7adebacked Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 218.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ab4abacked Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 254 | 44.9%114 W · 140 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 195.06$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Crest Gaming Zst | 66c | 178.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…cd03backed Insomnia | 12c | 169.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked Crest Gaming Zst | 66c | 161.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb553…457bbacked Insomnia | 22c | 138.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…bc9abacked Crest Gaming Zst | 66c | 130.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 119.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 224 | 52.7%118 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 112.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 111.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 111.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Insomnia | 11c | 106.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,495 | 46.6%696 W · 799 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Insomnia | 31c | 97.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked Insomnia | 30c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -8.7wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -50%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 93.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Crest Gaming Zst | 66c | 91.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 90.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 90.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked Insomnia | 36c | 80.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 57.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…6eacbacked Insomnia | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 66c | 53.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…cca4backed Insomnia | 34c | 50.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed Crest Gaming Zst | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Insomnia | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11d…5656backed Insomnia | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Insomnia | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 537 | 42.1%226 W · 311 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 69c | 48.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 46.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Crest Gaming Zst | 69c | 45.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 43.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 43.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 79c | 36.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 893 | 44.3%396 W · 497 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked Crest Gaming Zst | 71c | 35.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Insomnia | 32c | 34.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Insomnia | 35c | 30.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 439 | 43.7%192 W · 247 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Crest Gaming Zst | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 267 | 30.7%82 W · 185 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Crest Gaming Zst | 65c | 28.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Crest Gaming Zst | 67c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Crest Gaming Zst | 71c | 27.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed Crest Gaming Zst | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Crest Gaming Zst | 68c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 268 | 58.6%157 W · 111 L | +18.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b45…3c44backed Crest Gaming Zst | 69c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 62c | 16.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Crest Gaming Zst | 72c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.