TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Walczakiof Walczaki, Oxuji Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Walczaki58c26,708$15,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,217.2277052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Oxuji Esports42c21,640$9,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,006.535,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Oxuji Esports41c12,367$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,092.782,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Oxuji Esports42c6,544$2,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.6585358.3%497 W · 356 L+60.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Oxuji Esports21c3,886$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.0512627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Walczaki68c3,731$2,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.5292456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Oxuji Esports41c3,591$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.1367951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa225…12a7backed Walczaki57c3,498$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ab9…d821backed Walczaki57c3,222$1,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.334055%22 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Walczaki59c2,712$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.8649251%251 W · 241 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Walczaki59c2,661$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.3724746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Oxuji Esports31c2,588$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.2363457.1%362 W · 272 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09c4…2378backed Walczaki58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Walczaki59c1,363$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.0928434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Walczaki60c1,167$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.825344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1db…efd7backed Walczaki60c1,135$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Walczaki58c1,128$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.2929440.5%119 W · 175 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Walczaki60c1,097$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.8728755.1%158 W · 129 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3a…9683backed Walczaki57c1,016$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.962040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Walczaki58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42019546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Oxuji Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4036…0dd9backed Walczaki62c999.97$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.992948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Oxuji Esports42c963.45$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.3722049.1%108 W · 112 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Oxuji Esports20c932.76$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.056,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad1…12b9backed Walczaki60c856.44$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Oxuji Esports42c793.09$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9550051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Oxuji Esports38c779.02$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.0318950.8%96 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7004…a778backed Walczaki59c765.1$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.6930155.8%168 W · 133 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Walczaki60c732.62$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.0556239.5%222 W · 340 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Oxuji Esports42c718.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Walczaki67c686.82$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8923245.3%105 W · 127 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Oxuji Esports38c666.13$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.135,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Walczaki59c661$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.3332139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Walczaki59c636.15$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.151,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Oxuji Esports40c599.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2408143.2%35 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Oxuji Esports42c565.31$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1165254.3%354 W · 298 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…d0a7backed Walczaki59c564.03$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.031866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Oxuji Esports43c550.62$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5527552%143 W · 132 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6853…f2b8backed Walczaki58c549.06$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.61425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Walczaki65c540$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.545565.9%300 W · 155 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0e…bd73backed Walczaki59c520$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.24944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Walczaki58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2440558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3601…ac81backed Walczaki58c514.92$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Walczaki58c506.9$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.19732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Walczaki64c500.57$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2613371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed Oxuji Esports43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21526155.2%144 W · 117 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Oxuji Esports40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011155%61 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53b4…2e88backed Oxuji Esports39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed Walczaki59c469.72$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.513050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e5…cc65backed Oxuji Esports8c461.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1322346.2%103 W · 120 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Oxuji Esports42c443.03$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5519340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Walczaki60c416.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6722751.5%117 W · 110 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Walczaki59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16438052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb3…6bfebacked Walczaki58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1687540%30 W · 45 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Oxuji Esports30c361.6$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.074,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Walczaki58c360.82$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5461654.9%338 W · 278 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Walczaki79c340$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.192,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked Walczaki60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.337065.7%46 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Walczaki61c326.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3540449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Oxuji Esports33c321.33$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.472,60552.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Walczaki60c314.75$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.923732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Oxuji Esports41c299.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12457740.4%233 W · 344 L+1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Walczaki63c268.42$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.252,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x080f…fcc2backed Walczaki59c267.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.448250%41 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Oxuji Esports43c266.6$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9359049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Oxuji Esports38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Walczaki69c252.86$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9548654.5%265 W · 221 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Oxuji Esports36c250$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.54,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Oxuji Esports42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10527050.7%137 W · 133 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Walczaki59c244.04$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6422044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Walczaki60c242.26$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.322,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Walczaki58c241.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3819245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Oxuji Esports43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040455.4%224 W · 180 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Walczaki65c232$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6635153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Oxuji Esports43c231.56$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9640341.7%168 W · 235 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Walczaki57c229.98$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.891,16748.2%562 W · 605 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed Oxuji Esports44c227.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032461.4%199 W · 125 L+23.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Oxuji Esports10c219.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.052,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked Walczaki59c216.87$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8711661.2%71 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Walczaki57c216.03$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0344643.5%194 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Oxuji Esports18c214.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,08731.9%347 W · 740 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cee…bd00backed Walczaki57c211.7$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.031973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0241…fd36backed Walczaki59c199.65$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8240255.2%222 W · 180 L+2.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Walczaki58c198.35$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1777351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Oxuji Esports42c187.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8834750.7%176 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Oxuji Esports30c181.47$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.957,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Oxuji Esports43c180$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.865946.6%307 W · 352 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Oxuji Esports15c172.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.083,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5a…656cbacked Walczaki58c172.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.422853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Walczaki60c170$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6867651.8%350 W · 326 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Oxuji Esports12c166$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0470060.1%421 W · 279 L+70.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Walczaki58c163.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7954743.7%239 W · 308 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29c…1e43backed Walczaki61c163.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4423654.7%129 W · 107 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b9b…c323backed Walczaki57c162.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.255170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Oxuji Esports42c158.24$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1137855.3%209 W · 169 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Walczaki60c154$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8566436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Walczaki73c150.3$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5859445.8%272 W · 322 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Walczaki60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.230247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df6…558bbacked Oxuji Esports9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf8…043dbacked Walczaki59c147.9$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.