Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb40b171f3aafe481dfac333d43fedcbc3bad4542bd4fab0fcb97cdce7b916af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,042$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 69c | 659.49$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.72 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 35c | 544.08$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 72c | 499.98$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 348$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 312.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 207.77$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 67c | 177.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 150.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 147.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 146$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 32c | 120.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 14c | 88.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb2…d8d4backed Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 76.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 65.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 62.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 70c | 61.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 53.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 68c | 47.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 44.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 39.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 34c | 37.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 29c | 37.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 33c | 35.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 29.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 68c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 79c | 21.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.