Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf677a673118b288e1de669447bae47655ec9cba4f175ee6cfff0ee64ed2bd49f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 2c | 666.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 499.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 392.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 214.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 27c | 197.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 196$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 183.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 75c | 178.64$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 71c | 137$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 130.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 21c | 101.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 95.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 76.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 70.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 25c | 68.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 36.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 32.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 29.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 27.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 75c | 18.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.