TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,127 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes24c1,255$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.424,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No7c689.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes25c687.51$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.2273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c456.29$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No60c442.88$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1327463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes28c300$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.2552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes39c253.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.8713430.6%41 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No45c234.71$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes69c175.01$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8723231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeec…a723backed No72c162.54$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.53452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No73c161.01$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3238840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c157.92$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.963,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No78c154.11$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.796674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c150.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.143,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No78c150.29$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2352245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No74c134.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No69c131.93$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.171,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc83f…f2d7backed Yes25c125.26$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick19cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes33c108.19$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No71c107.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes56c104.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3533243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.836,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7029642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7726827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.73,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No76c89.93$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.545257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b9e…154abacked No55c83.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.174671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes23c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.649038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes31c79.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4112230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No70c70.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6414071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes40c69.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1621333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No33c69.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.931,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c68.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.452,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c68.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.982,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3827…5455backed Yes62c68.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.065356.6%30 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+44.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xafd0…a098backed No72c65.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.981625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x389e…3179backed Yes38c63.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.281346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No72c61.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c60.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No77c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.29434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd89f…4864backed No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No77c59.61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7611872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ed…af11backed No61c52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.66560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed No72c51.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.748940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No51c48.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.867,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked No73c47.59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.574652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No66c46.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c45.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No75c44.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed No73c41.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.356642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.912828.1%36 W · 92 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.844553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.142,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes29c37.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3733726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes29c35.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd725…0ba3backed No76c35.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.762272.7%16 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf905…9cc4backed No74c34.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No75c32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81a2…5cdabacked No78c31.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.485872.4%42 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.764,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd9…bc9abacked No75c26.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf618…6a90backed No75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6883…4406backed No75c26.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick77cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…ce9abacked No78c24.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ccf…9ea3backed No77c23.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.932763%17 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45bc…1f69backed No66c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d9…9397backed Yes57c22.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.894862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No78c22.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.387375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be2…cba5backed No77c20.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.852759.3%16 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick74cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No76c18.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.911963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0d…4ed5backed No78c17.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62951.7%15 W · 14 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x05cc…eeefbacked No63c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.68520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-69.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa01…b923backed Yes61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.77440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6624…5a93backed No77c15.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed No72c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0094…58febacked No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…1c9abacked No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c14.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No75c14.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6854143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea9…2a8fbacked No78c13.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.