MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb411221b393d76d3354a6b433ad14c512bdfbf949bc42ffab273b4e6bfcd30b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 9,390$4,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,489.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 4,544$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 2,164$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.76 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,673$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 954.28$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.95 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 49c | 820$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 43c | 693$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.67 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 661$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 34c | 531.22$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.43 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 497.04$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 54c | 413.16$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.59 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 50c | 396$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 367.08$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 52c | 342.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 285.21$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 257.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 47c | 245.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 174.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 62c | 165.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 44c | 163.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586b…52d9backed Under | 55c | 155.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 134.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 94.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 87.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 81.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 77c | 79.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 48c | 70.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 47c | 61.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 68c | 55.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 52c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 52c | 46.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 43c | 42.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 50c | 40.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 38c | 29.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 44c | 29.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…68e1backed Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Under | 77c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Under | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…0c6fbacked Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.