Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb415368cf80a837935ca4d11623e692c35762aed0d0cc872c93d78935f3a14c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 27,634$11,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,357.89 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 51c | 17,000$8,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,330 | 110 | 29.1%32 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 7,606$2,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 4,059$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.23 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Under | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,312$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.38 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 1,250$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.5 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.93 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 51c | 809.27$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.54 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 19c | 376.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 59c | 341.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Over | 63c | 271.43$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…2c66backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 38c | 189.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…28e8backed Under | 38c | 185.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 19c | 179$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 63c | 152.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 69c | 150.72$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 80c | 143.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Over | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 31c | 135.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 116.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca6…0d08backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 35c | 87.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Over | 55c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 559 | 55.1%308 W · 251 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…aecabacked Under | 33c | 61.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 19c | 60.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…337cbacked Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…3010backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…da92backed Over | 71c | 28.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…9e83backed Over | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…7c05backed Over | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.