College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb446e3bf3cd07c856c053b0a1df0102ca86a5363fb168aadb67e66603a69fc37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vanderbiltof Texas, Vanderbilt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Vanderbilt | 54c | 20,143$10,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,265.77 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Texas | 46c | 18,031$8,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,294.03 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Vanderbilt | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas | 47c | 4,670$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.01 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Texas | 49c | 4,522$2,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.19 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Vanderbilt | 51c | 3,591$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.83 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vanderbilt | 51c | 3,494$1,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.9 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Vanderbilt | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Texas | 49c | 1,102$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Texas | 46c | 1,059$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.06 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vanderbilt | 52c | 1,042$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.12 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Texas | 49c | 1,022$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.78 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Vanderbilt | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Texas | 47c | 843.27$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.54 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Texas | 47c | 586.77$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Texas | 46c | 545$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.7 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Texas | 46c | 418.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Texas | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Texas | 48c | 289.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Vanderbilt | 54c | 260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Vanderbilt | 52c | 215.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked Texas | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Texas | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texas | 46c | 195.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Texas | 46c | 131.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed Vanderbilt | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Texas | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…b210backed Vanderbilt | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…dfa7backed Texas | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Vanderbilt | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Vanderbilt | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Vanderbilt | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Vanderbilt | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Texas | 47c | 84.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Vanderbilt | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Texas | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Texas | 48c | 68.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Vanderbilt | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8061…0ca8backed Vanderbilt | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…296dbacked Texas | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…5340backed Texas | 47c | 52.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdc…e35fbacked Vanderbilt | 53c | 52.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Texas | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Vanderbilt | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Vanderbilt | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texas | 46c | 37.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Vanderbilt | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-3.5)this page
- O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Texas (-1.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-2.5)Texas won
- Vanderbilt vs. TexasTexas won
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas: O/U 44.5Over won
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas: O/U 46.5Over won
- Vanderbilt vs. Texas: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.